2025-NOV-7 MARKET REPORT

The Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) is on the brink of history, closing the week at a valuation of KES 2.991 Trillion—just shy of the 3 Trillion mark. Meanwhile, the fixed income market demonstrated robust health with bond turnover rising 7.9% to KES 40.9B and T-Bills recording a 5th consecutive week of oversubscription.

BOND MARKET

The domestic secondary bond market demonstrated robust performance, recording a turnover increase of not less than 7.9% for the week ended November 7,2025 compared to the other week’s performance. The total market turnover stood at Kes. 40.948 billion from Kes. 37.960 billion in the previous week.

Bond index recorded a 0.74% decrease to close the week at 1167.06 compared to 11.75.8 in the previous week.

During the week, the Central Bank of Kenya released the auction results for the re-opened treasury bonds FXD1/2012/020 and FXD1/2022/015 with tenors to maturities of 7.0 years and 11.4 years respectively and fixed coupon rates of 12.0% and 13.9% respectively.

Treasury bills were oversubscribed for the fifth consecutive week, with the overall subscription rate coming in at 166.1%, higher than the subscription rate of 101.1% recorded in the previous week.

In the international market, yields on Kenya’s Eurobonds decreased by 11.70% on average. The table below shows the performance of bonds domestically and internationally.

Below is a smoothened NSE curve as at 6th Nov 2025.

International Markets

Despite the Fed's rate cut, Treasury yields rose in the wake of the news and Chair Powell's commentary, suggesting a degree of hawkishness was priced in.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed the prior week around 4.08% and was largely range-bound during the week (between 3.95% and 4.20%).

As for the European bonds, Shorter-dated Bonds (Germany) and Gilts (UK) led returns in USD and CAD terms on a 1-month and year-to-date basis, partly due to the strength of the Euro and Sterling currency, and an improving inflation backdrop in the UK.

Exchange Rates

The Kenyan shilling showed remarkable stability against the USD. This was also the case against the Euro and Sterling Pound.

Market Share Statistics

The NSE valuation was on the verge of hitting a Sh3 trillion market capitalization for the first time in history. The Nairobi bourse closed at Sh2.991 trillion up from Sh2.473 trillion in mid-July- offering investors a return of half a trillion shillings in the period.

Inflation

The annual consumer price inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was

4.6% as at September 2025. This implies that the general price level was 4.6% higher in September 2025 than it was in September 2024.

Risk Considerations and Disclosures

Investments in fixed income securities carry risks common to debt instruments, including credit risk, liquidity risk, interest rate risk, and prepayment or extension risk. Bond prices move inversely to changes in interest rates, meaning a general rise in interest rates may cause bond prices to fall. Securities with variable or floating interest rates are generally less sensitive to interest rate movements than fixed rate securities, however, if interest rates do not change as expected or if they fall, variable or floating rate securities may not increase in value and may even decline. Credit risk arises when the issuer fails to pay interest or principal, and this risk tends to be higher for high yield or lower rated bonds. Prepayment risk occurs when the issuer repays principal sooner than anticipated, while extension risk occurs when repayment happens more slowly than expected. As a result, fixed income investments may be worth less than the original amount invested at redemption or maturity.

This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction, including Kenya, where such an offer or solicitation would be unauthorised or unlawful.

Prospective investors should familiarise themselves with any legal, tax or exchange control obligations that apply in Kenya or in their country of residence or domicile, as these may affect the investment.

This information is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be interpreted as investment advice or as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. It is not a substitute for personalised guidance from a qualified financial adviser. The suitability of any investment depends on an investor's financial situation, objectives, and risk tolerance.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. The value of investments and the income generated from them can fluctuate and may go down as well as up. Loss of principal is possible.

This material may refer to general market, economic, industry, or sector conditions in Kenya or globally. It does not constitute research or financial analysis and should not replace independent due diligence.

Fintrust Securities Ltd, a licensed securities dealer regulated by the Capital Markets Authority of Kenya, applies internal risk management procedures. However, this does not imply that fixed income or other securities investments are low risk.

Any reference to a specific issuer, company, or security does not constitute a recommendation to invest in that issuer or security. There is no assurance that future investment decisions will achieve profitability or match the performance of any securities mentioned.

Views and opinions expressed in this material are current as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. This information may not reflect the most recent market or regulatory developments.